What Data Reveals About Success (and Why Failure Is Part of the Process)

“Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.” — Samuel Beckett

I bet you don’t believe me.

You’ve heard all the motivational clichés before: “Failure is a stepping stone to success,” or “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Sounds nice, right? But if you’re cynical, you’re probably thinking: “Okay, but where’s the proof?”

Cool. Let’s get into it.

Let’s talk about basketball — one of the most relentlessly performance-driven sports in the world.

If I asked you who holds the record for most missed shots in NBA history, you’d probably guess some random benchwarmer. Someone who barely made it through the season.

Not exactly.

The record-holder for most missed shots is Kobe Bryant.
One of the greatest players of all time.

He missed 14,481 shots in his career.
Fourteen thousand. And he’s a legend.

Still not convinced?

Let’s look at LeBron James, the all-time leading scorer in NBA history.
Guess where he ranks in missed shots?

Top 5.

And Michael Jordan, the man widely considered the greatest player of all time?
He’s in the Top 10 for missed shots.

The best basketball players in the world also hold the records for failure.
Because greatness doesn’t come from avoiding failure.
It comes from showing up, taking the shot, missing, learning, and shooting again.

But let’s take a deeper dive.

Sunken Treasure and Bayesian Thinking: Why Failure Increases Your Chances of Success

In 1857, a ship called the SS Central America sank during a hurricane, taking tons of gold to the ocean floor. For over a century, explorers tried and failed to find the shipwreck.

Enter Tommy Thompson, a treasure hunter with a different approach.

Instead of relying on luck, Thompson used Bayesian thinking — a mathematical method that adjusts probabilities based on new data.

Here’s how it worked:

After each failed search, Thompson’s team didn’t see it as a loss, they saw it as data.
They updated their search based on what they’d learned — refining their calculations and narrowing the search area.
In 1988, after 161 years of searching, Thompson found the largest cache of gold ever recovered from a shipwreck — over $150 million in gold.

Now, you’re probably not hunting for shipwrecks.
But your goals are your treasure.

And the key to reaching them isn’t getting everything right on your first try.
It’s about failing better, learning from your setbacks, and adjusting your approach.

What Is Bayesian Thinking?

Bayesian thinking is named after Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century statistician. It’s a way of updating your predictions based on new evidence.

Think of it like playing a game of Hot and Cold.

When you’re getting closer to your goal, you’re getting “hotter.”
When you’re off track, you’re getting “colder.”

Most of us try to make one giant leap toward success — like trying to dunk a basketball on your first attempt. But that strategy doesn’t work. It’s too extreme. It doesn’t leave room for small adjustments.

Instead, small, purposeful corrections are what get you closer to your goal.

Why We Get in Our Own Way

Here’s the problem:
We take failure personally.
We expect perfection.
We think progress is a straight line.

But that mindset will crush you. It leads to burnout, frustration, and giving up.

Instead of seeing failure as a dead end, think of it like treasure hunting.
Every failure gives you new data.
Every adjustment gets you closer to the prize.

The key is to take the emotion out of failure and treat it as information.

How to Apply This to Your Life: Real-World Examples

Fitness Recovery: Stop Ignoring Pain — It’s Data

Many people ignore pain during workouts, thinking they need to push through. But pain is data telling you something needs adjusting.

Example:

Cold: You feel pain in your lower back during deadlifts. Adjust your form or weight.
Hot: You feel stronger and pain-free after proper warm-ups. Keep doing those.

Nutrition & Weight Loss: Stop Following Generic Diet Plans

Many people follow one-size-fits-all diets that don’t account for their body’s unique needs. Instead, apply Bayesian thinking:

Example:

Cold: You realize cutting carbs too drastically leaves you exhausted. Adjust by finding a better balance.
Hot: You notice that eating more protein keeps you full longer. Double down on that.

The Science of Failure: Why You’re More Likely to Succeed After You Fail

People who never fail often struggle to handle setbacks when they finally encounter one.
They haven’t built the resilience or problem-solving skills that come from failing better.

Research shows that people who fail early in their careers are more likely to succeed later on.

Why?

Because they’ve already gathered the data.
They’ve learned what doesn’t work and can adjust their approach.

The Final Treasure: Your Goals

Think of your goals like the Ship of Gold.
At first, they seem impossible to reach.
But every action you take — every failure and success — gives you new information.

It’s not about getting it right the first time.
It’s about learning from your setbacks, adjusting your approach, and trying again.

Because the treasure is there.
You just have to keep digging.

So next time you fall short, ask yourself:
What did I learn?
What small adjustment can I make?

And remember the words of Samuel Beckett:
“Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.”